Covid-19: Has the visits ban ‘tempered’ cases in west Scotland?

A ban on visiting other people's homes has been extended across Scotland as part of new measures to slow the spread of Covid-19 infections in Scotland.

That goes further than restrictions imposed in England, where households are still allowed to mix indoors.

However, the Scottish government believes the ban has already been having an effect in the west of Scotland – where it has been in place in some areas since 2 September.

Speaking on BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme, Deputy First Minister John Swinney said the restrictions in Glasgow and neighbouring areas had been "tempering" the increase of cases.

He stated: "The rise is not as fast as it was and we think is to do with the application of restrictions around the ability to meet in people's houses. And we've now taken that step across the whole country."

Using Public Health Scotland (PHS) figures on positive cases in each local authority area, it is possible to analyse whether the restrictions are having an affect.

2 September – Visits ban for Glasgow City, East Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire

This first chart shows the seven-day new case rates per 100,000 people for the first three council areas that were hit with the restriction.

The rate is calculated by adding up all the new positive cases over the last seven days, dividing it by the population of an area and then multiplying by 100,000.

Infection rates in Glasgow City and East Renfrewshire appear to slow in the days following the introduction of the indoor household mixing ban.

They are now declining in East Renfrewshire, but after a brief plateau in Glasgow they have begun to rise again.

There's a different story in West Dunbartonshire, which currently has the highest infection rate in Scotland. Here, rates slowed briefly but are now rising sharply again.

7 September – Visits ban extended to East Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire

Just five days after the restrictions came in for three councils, the curbs were extended. At this stage some 1.1 million people were affected.

In these two areas, infection rates actually appeared to be slowing before the restrictions were introduced.

But the trend continued, especially in East Dunbartonshire which has seen a marked decline in infections.

11 September – Visits ban further extended to North and South Lanarkshire

Approximately 1.75 million people faced the restriction when the two council areas in Lanarkshire Read More – Source

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